My second quarter 2019 portfolio review is posted

I have completed and posted my Q2 2019 portfolio review. We’re up 9.8% so far and things are looking good notwithstanding some possibly growing headwinds.

Read my full review here.

The updated OSC fantasy growth and income portfolio 2018 performance deck is posted

The deck on the 2018 performance of the two OSC fantasy portfolios that was presented on March 12, 2019 is now posted.

The deck has a slide at the end about how much difference 10 weeks can make in the markets.

There was a typo on the 2016 fantasy income portfolio returns that has been corrected as well.

See the deck here along with other member content from the Ottawa Share Club.

OSC fantasy growth and income portfolio 2018 performance deck is posted

The deck on the 2018 performance of the two OSC fantasy portfolios that was to be presented on February 12, 2019 is now posted. The deck may be presented at a future meeting since the February 12 meeting was cancelled due to bad weather.

The deck has a slide at the end about how much difference six weeks can make in the markets.

See the deck here along with other member content from the Ottawa Share Club.

My annual portfolio review and updated household investment plan are now posted

I’ve posted my annual portfolio review as well as an updated version of my household investment plan.

My annual review shows a small gain in our portfolio for 2018, well ahead of major North American indexes. More here.

The updates to my household investment plan feature continued focus on sequence of returns risk and asset allocations based on “buckets” along with a reduction in our target portfolio performance going forward as we start to glide into retirement. More here.

Second quarter secular trends fantasy portfolio results are now posted

With the second quarter completed, I’ve updated my secular trends fantasy portfolio performance report.

It’s been a strong year so far for the overall performance, but some themes are doing much better than others.

The total portfolio has delivered a 5.89% total return so far this year. The leaders are Amplify Online Retail ETF (IBUY), up ~25% and ETFMG Prime Cyber Security ETF (HACK), up ~17%.

The laggards are Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO), down ~7% and iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (ICLN), down ~5%.

By contrast, my secular trends benchmark is up only ~1% year to date. Other major indexes have total returns year to date as follows:

  • NASDAQ (QQQ) +10.6%
  • S&P 500 (SPY) +2.52%
  • TSX Composite (XIC) +1.14%
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) -0.91

So, secular investing this year so far has done fairly well even though performance varies widely by theme. See the full performance report here.

 

My Q2 2018 portfolio review has been published

I’ve published my second quarter of 2018 portfolio review. In it I discuss my current take on managing our household portfolio, some of the trades I’ve recently made and my thoughts for the rest of the year.

See my review here.

The decks from the April 2018 OSC meeting are posted

The decks from Mark Seed on DRIPping and from myself (Michael Patenaude) on the Q1 2018 OSC fantasy portfolios and sector allocations presented at the April 17, 2018 Ottawa Share Club meeting are posted here.

My 2018 first quarter portfolio review is now published

I’ve completed my first quarter portfolio review.

Quite a difference from last year so far. Our household portfolio is flat so far this year. That’s a bit better than some of the major indexes, but not all.

I have a link in my review to some evidence that markets in the US might be soft until the mid-terms, and then could rebound a lot. So hopefully things will improve as the year progresses.

Find out more here.

My December 2017 annual portfolio review is now posted

Our portfolio beat it’s own target return objective in 2017: 7.82% vs. 7.00%, (or about 12% better than planned), and our asset allocations ended up mostly in line with what I expected.

We also beat our benchmark: 7.82% vs. 6.37% (or about 23% better than our benchmark).

See how it worked out in more detail here.

The deck reviewing 2017’s performance of the OSC fantasy growth and income portfolios is available

Visit my OSC member page to obtain a PDF copy of my deck presented January 9, 2017 at the OSC meeting. It features the second annual review of the Ottawa Share Club fantasy and income portfolios.

Topics include:

  • —Performance vs. portfolios’ own objectives and benchmarks
  • —Asset allocation review
    • —Asset type
    • —Geography
    • —Sector
    • —Single security
  • —Best and worst performers
  • —Trades made to date and how they’ve worked out
  • Conclusion and discussion

The OSC fantasy growth and income reports as of December 31, 2017 are now posted

The OSC fantasy growth portfolio had a total return of 16.0% in 2017, and features a two-year total return of 26.8%. The 2017 performance beat the portolio’s stated total return objective of 9.1% (as it has for two years).

The OSC fantasy income portfolio had a total return of 9.7% in 2017, and returned 15.4% over the last two years. The 2017 total return exceeded the portfolio’s stated return objective of 5.5% (as it has for two years).

The OSC fantasy growth portfolio report for 2017 can be viewed here.

The OSC fantasy income portfolio report for 2017 can be viewed here.

The October 17, 2017 OSC member presentations are available

Three presentations from OSC members made at the October 2107 meeting are now posted:

  • Peter McMurtry’s presentation on Understanding Financial Statements
  • Peter #1’s presentation (in collaboration with myself, Michael Patenaude) on the third quarter review of the OSC fantasy growth and income portfolios
  • Peter #1’s OSC fantasy portfolio trade proposals

These presentations and other OSC member content can be found here.

Member presentations from the April 2017 OSC meeting are now posted

The OSC member presentations from April are now available:

  • Peter’s slide on the March 2017 OSC member survey results (results compiled by Cynthia)
  • Alan and Geraldine’s annotated presentation on value investing
  • Sherwin’s presentation on how to choose dividend stocks
  • Michael’s presentation on the Q1 2017 OSC fantasy portfolio results

Access these presentations along with all the OSC member and guest presentations here.

My Q1 2017 portfolio review is now published

I’ve published my first quarter 2017 portfolio review. We’re doing pretty well with a 3.3% return year to date. We’re beating our own annualized 7% return on a pro-rata basis.

Please see all my commentary, our updated household equity portfolio holdings and much more here.

Changing the benchmarks for the OSC fantasy portfolios

The OSC fantasy growth and income portfolios are being tracked on a monthly basis.

Their performance is being benchmarked as follows.

  • Growth (total portfolio vs.):
    • its own total return objective
    • a modified assertive Couch Potato portfolio
    • the TSX Composite
    • the S&P 500
  • Income (total portfolio vs.):
    • its own total return objective
    • a modified conservative Couch Potato portfolio
    • the TSX Composite
    • the S&P 500

Some of the benchmarks seem irrelevant to me.

The fantasy growth portfolio only targets 72% in equities so it doesn’t make sense to track 100% of it against an all equity benchmark. Of the equity components, the targets geographically are 46% Canadian, 34% US, 12% international developed and 8% international emerging market. So it doesn’t make sense to benchmark against just a Canadian and US index.

The fantasy income portfolio only targets 46% in equities so it too doesn’t make sense to track 100% of it against an all equity benchmark. Of the equity components, the targets geographically are 51% Canadian, 35% US, 9% international developed and 5% international emerging market. So, again, it doesn’t make sense to benchmark against just a Canadian and US index.

Another point to note: tracking against the S&P 500 does not take into account currency exchange rates between Canada and the US. The fantasy portfolios are all tracked in Canadian dollars whereas the S&P 500’s performance is in US dollars. Given the recent strength of the Canadian dollar, this makes the portfolio look like it is performing worse than it is.

Starting in April 2016, I am proposing that some of the benchmarks be changed.

What’s new is that each major equity component of the portfolios will be tracked against a more suitable index reflecting the geographic sector of the holdings. The portfolios as a whole will not longer be benchmarked to the TSX Composite nor the S&P 500.

The tracking against each portfolio’s own total return objective and each portfolio’s respective Couch Potato portfolio will remain unchanged (the latter is “modified” to mirror the Canadian stock, international stock, bond and cash holdings of each portfolio).

So, here is what the two fantasy portfolios will be benchmarked against going forward….

  • Growth:
    • Total portfolio vs. its own total return objective
    • Total portfolio vs. a modified assertive Couch Potato portfolio
    • Canadian equities vs. the TSX Composite
    • US equities vs. Vanguard ETF VFV (representing the S&P 500 in Canadian dollars)
    • International developed vs. Vanguard ETF VDU (tracking the MSCI EAFE)
    • International emerging vs. Vanguard ETF VEE (tracking the FTSE Emerging Markets All Cap China A Inclusion Index) Note: this is technically redundant since VEE is the holding in the portfolio therefore it is being tracked against itself.
  • Income:
    • Total portfolio vs. its own total return objective
    • Total portfolio vs. a modified conservative Couch Potato portfolio
    • Canadian equities vs. the TSX Composite
    • US equities vs. Vanguard ETF VFV (representing the S&P 500 in Canadian dollars)
    • International developed vs. Vanguard ETF VDU (tracking the MSCI EAFE)
    • International emerging vs. Vanguard ETF VEE (tracking the FTSE Emerging Markets All Cap China A Inclusion Index)

I think this will make more sense going forward. Please share your thoughts by commenting on this post.